The journey to the singularity
The journey to the singularity
It has now been 8 years since my last published article on Industry 4.0. Join me now on the human journey towards the Singularity - the complete technological dependence of humans on technology.
Further links:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/journey-singularity-fabio-iannone-uh9we
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/industry-40-my-point-view-fabio-iannone/
"THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OR DIGITALIZATION LEADS TO "UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING", THE FULLY NETWORKED WORLD. IN IT, SINGULARITY PREVAILS, I.E. THE TOTAL TECHNOLOGICAL DEPENDENCE OF HUMANS ON TECHNOLOGY. [1]"
Slowly moving towards digital
Digital transformation is on everyone's lips. It's not just in the last few months, but for years now that these words have been used repeatedly to describe something that is supposed to fundamentally change the world.
For example, one group of researchers gave the following assessment of the overview in the field of digital transformation:
"First of all, from a cynical point of view, digital transformation can be seen as a management fad or the rebirth of past IT-enabled change initiatives with a new outfit. IT-enabled change re-emerged a few years ago as part of the business process management movement. As interest in business process management seems to be waning, a new buzzword is emerging to spark renewed interest from managers, consultants and software companies. On the other hand, enthusiasts might argue that digital transformation involves novel elements that deserve appropriate attention and pose interesting challenges for future research. In particular, the results show that managers should adapt their business strategy to the digital reality by integrating new technologies into their business models, which increases the importance of the topic of process and operations management. [2]"
Inthe past, attempts to define the term in specialist literature have sounded very much like marketing promises, such as the definition by Dominic M. Mazzone, who writes freely translated from English:
"Digital transformation is the targeted and ongoing digital evolution of a company, business model, idea process or methodology, both strategically and tactically. [3]"
Thomas Hess, who also distinguishes the term from digitization, defines the term in more technical terms:
"Digitization describes the introduction of new solutions based on digital technologies. In English, we speak of digitalization - easily confused with digitization; the latter refers to the transfer of information from an analogue to a digital form of storage and therefore a very specific form of digitalization. The term digital transformation goes one step further. This term places greater emphasis on the change brought about by digital technologies. It accentuates the introduction of a technical solution (e.g. a new sales management concept), but also emphasizes the driving role of new digital technologies. [4]"
Other approaches speak of a degree of maturity. Nota bene: This term is also used ambivalently. On the one hand, there are approaches that use the term "digital maturity model" to measure and visualize the status quo of digital transformation in companies; on the other hand, there are approaches that use the term "digital maturity" to mean continuous further development in the form of a flexible and digital maturity process without a defined end, in which the company constantly adapts to new technological possibilities, also known as "permanent beta" [5].
A pioneer in the field of the "Digital Maturity Model" is the Faculty of Business Informatics at the University of St. Gallen with its Maturity Index: a questionnaire that divides responses from representatives of various companies into nine dimensions and makes the results comparable. This allows companies to classify their self-assessed and relative maturity level between the results of other companies. The maturity model does not provide any guidance per se as to what digital transformation is. Knowing that the dimensions were developed bottom-up - from data collected by the University of St. Gallen - with existing models, a literature analysis and expert interviews and validated in a focus group, we note a certain general usefulness [6].
The definition of "Digital Maturity" by Gerald C. Kane, which is closer to change management, applies better to the context of this blog article because it has a longer scope:
"The alignment of people, culture, structure and tasks of an organization to compete effectively by taking advantage of opportunities enabled by the technological infrastructure both inside and outside the organization. [7]"
Inaddition to this, the underlying organizational congruence theory of David A. Nadler and Michael L. Tushman must be included in order to develop a greater understanding of the thought pattern:"
All things being equal; the greater the overall degree of congruence or alignment between the various components, the higher the degree of organizational effectiveness will be, in which the actual organizational outcomes at the individual, group and organizational levels will be similar to the expected outcomes as defined by the strategy. [8]"
Paradoxically, a more far-reaching definition is provided by Ralf E. Strauss, a management consultant specializing in marketing, sales, service and digitalization, who describes digital transformation in his book as an ongoing process of change based on digital technologies that affects society and, in economic terms, companies in particular [9].
The author of this blog article comes to the conclusion that all the published attempts to define the term "digital transformation" mentioned so far are correct and useful at their core, but do not have the richness of facets that such a term, which is often mentioned in the media, in the world of work and in everyday life - from a wide variety of perspectives, at different times and with different backgrounds - with the much-cited potential to change the world, should actually have. Don't get the author of this blog article wrong: for most organizations in the market, it makes sense to increase efficiency where the benefits are highest and the applicability is greatest. In the capitalist world we live in, this is usually the attempt to increase the sales of its products in order to increase the corresponding performance indicators such as turnover, EBIT, etc. or a ratio of profitability. However, the definition should not be limited to this, but should be much more general, so that functions other than sales, marketing or information technology in the company also feel addressed. The author of this blog article has been dealing with these considerations on digital transformation for some time. He has acquired his own perspective on digital transformation, which is used in this blog article to make digital transformation tangible. In order to understand it, we must first understand the journey we are on: We are on a journey to a fully connected world. A world in which every object is constantly communicating with any other object. Humans are enriched by technology and what humans perceive is enriched by technology. For example, a chip could be implanted that imitates the functions of a telephone and could be implanted directly in the ear canal. Or a contact lens could be used to display navigation data directly in the field of vision. Marc Weiser wrote about this back in 1991: "The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into everyday life until they can no longer be distinguished from it. [10]"
Pervasive to ubiquitous, next stop?
Experts call this full networking "ubiquitous computing". The precursor to this is "pervasive computing", in which certain technologies already permeate everyday life but are not yet fully networked at all times. A navigation system in a car is such an example, which is available to the consumer during a journey in the vehicle, but is not constantly available outside of it. According to the author of this blog article, the ultimate form of a fully connected world lies in the dependence of people on technology. In the distant future, it is conceivable that human consciousnesses could be backed up by technology before they die and transferred to another host, such as a clone of themselves. This theory may seem a little far-fetched, but genius and madness are close to each other in the vernacular, even though experts consider this to be a "relic of the 19th century" [11]. Nevertheless, NASA predicted back in 1993 that humanity would be able to create intelligence superior to humans within thirty years, shortly after which it would be extinct [12] and called this state the Singularity. Elon Musk takes a more positive view and tries to reinforce the dependence on technology with visions of what the world - or another world - will look like in the future. He conjures up that humanity will become a "multi-planetary" species [13] and wants to make the flight to Mars affordable for almost everyone [14]. This vision shines like a North Star in his company SpaceX. Here, too, the dependence on technology can be clearly seen. In the context of this blog article, we refer to the Singularity as precisely this dependence of humans on technology. Furthermore, for the further course of the work and for the definition of the term "digital transformation", we note that our North Star is the belief in "ubiquitous computing", i.e. the belief in the coming fully networked world. We also equate the terms "digital transformation" and "digitalization". We also assume that after the Singularity is reached, efficiency will increase even more, as humans will have made their lives completely dependent and will therefore be much more willing to accept further technology, for example in the form of implants in the body, which will subsequently form a cybernetic organism.
THE DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OR DIGITALIZATION LEADS TO "UBIQUITOUS COMPUTING", THE FULLY NETWORKED WORLD. IN THIS WORLD, SINGULARITY PREVAILS, I.E. THE TOTAL TECHNOLOGICAL DEPENDENCE OF HUMANS ON TECHNOLOGY. [15]
And here we go...
The rest is almost self-evident: In capitalism, companies will continue to try to increase profits on the way to a fully networked world. In order to increase profits, most companies will - as already mentioned - try to increase sales as a first step. This is a continuous process and the coronavirus crisis has made even the smallest village stores understand how important it is nowadays to use an eCommerce platform where customers can be received outside of store opening hours so that they can place orders and reservations for aseptic pick-up or even home delivery.
Admittedly, this example is a very trivial form of "digital transformation" on the journey to singularity. Much further ahead are companies that were founded with a digital business model and generate profits beyond store opening hours, for example with subscriptions that regularly generate revenue. Netflix and Spotify are innovative examples of this, and Apple has also recently followed suit with its various subscriptions. Platform operators such as Uber or Facebook go one step further. They only provide the digital basis for business models and generate their revenue in the form of transactions made via the platform or by inserting suitable advertising into the user's content on the platform. Uber is considered one of the pioneers of platforms because they have revolutionized the market for cab rides without owning a single vehicle. But what is the difference between innovation and revolution in terms of the market?
The author of this blog article draws in part on a definition from the past. It used the following formula for innovation [16]: Innovation = Idea + Invention + Diffusion [17], i.e. a true innovation only results from the formula when the idea actually becomes a product, service or process that successfully catches on in the market. This step is called diffusion. The more a product, service or process succeeds in the market, the more intensive the diffusion becomes. From the diffusion level at which the product, service or process can also turn other sectors, industries or business models upside down or even make them obsolete, diffusion becomes disruption and innovation becomes revolution. A suitable definition of a revolution can therefore be derived as follows: "Revolution = idea + invention + disruption" [18].
It is difficult to predict in advance whether market penetration will develop into diffusion or disruption, as it depends on various factors and framework conditions. However, if we look behind the scenes at one of the biggest technology giants, we can still find a clue. The former CEO of Google, Eric Schmidt, writes that for Google, innovation means "new, surprising and extremely useful" [19]. The author of this blog article would like to use the usefulness in particular, which Google emphasizes in its definition, as he is convinced that usefulness is closely linked to the purpose of the company and management, but more on this in the following chapters. At this point, usefulness should be explained as being responsible for the degree of market penetration. Since a product, service or process always solves a problem, the degree of usefulness, i.e. the benefit generated by solving the problem, is also decisive for market penetration and ultimately determines whether an innovation or revolution develops on the market. This fact is also used in the context of this blog article outside of the market.
WHETHER AN INNOVATION OR REVOLUTION DEVELOPS DEPENDS ON THE DEGREE OF USEFULNESS OF A PRODUCT, SERVICE OR PROCESS.
We assume that the framework conditions are the same for different products, services or processes. This thoroughly theoretical approach is also partially applicable in practice. Nevertheless, in practice, market penetration cannot necessarily be derived in the same proportion as the usefulness of the products, services or processes, as it is diluted by different factors such as different marketing budgets. Since we are only indirectly involved in the market in the context of this blog article and are working with a focus in and around the IT infrastructure, we assume that the innovation must be new and extremely useful, but not necessarily surprising. Instead, it cannot be surprising if the innovation is a logical further development of something that already exists.
IN THE CONTEXT OF THIS BLOG ARTICLE, WE DEFINE INNOVATION AS NEW AND EXTREMELY USEFUL. [21]
But how do we measure usefulness when the areas that our work deals with are not market-oriented, i.e. act as so-called cost or service centers [22]? The answer is in the context of this blog article: With efficiency. Here too, the author of this blog article uses an earlier definition. It states that, according to the literature, the definition of efficiency can be visualized as follows [23]:
Economic efficiency: The ratio of input to output; for example, the resources needed to fell trees (final cost) and the number of trees felled (within a given time frame).
Effectiveness: The relationship between output and its impact; for example, the number of trees felled (within a certain time frame) and their respective market value (revenue when sold).
Efficiency: The relationship between economic viability and effectiveness; for example, you can cut down trees with either 100 nail files or 100 chainsaws. The output, i.e. the number of trees felled in the same period, will vary considerably, so the same applies to the respective market value and revenue generated by the group of felled trees.
In the digital world, where input and output have always been the constant of operations, efficiency can be summarized even more simply:
EFFICIENCY IS THE RATIO OF INPUT AND OUTPUT DURING AND UP TO THE ACHIEVEMENT OF A GOAL. [24]
The ultimate goal
Up to this point, digital transformation seems to be nothing new. But why then has this buzzword seemed to have been a constant for a few years now? The reason for this is the increased and still increasing opportunities that arise from the rise in technology performance (especially performance in the form of computing power, storage capacity and transmission speed) with the simultaneous fall in its costs. These catalysts - let's call them catalysts - include cloud computing, high-speed mobile networks, artificial intelligence, virtual and augmented reality, robotics, 3D printing and, in the future, nano-implants, genetic engineering and cybernetic organisms. They open up new, surprising and extremely useful areas of application. If we are in a market-oriented context, it is usually digital business models that arise from this; in a non-market-oriented context, it is opportunities to increase efficiency, i.e. to achieve the same or higher output with fewer resources. In traditionally structured and managed companies, digitalization was often equated with the IT department. In organizational terms, this was attached to the finance department, for example, where it was seen as a cost factor that needed to be kept to a minimum. This led to the fact that IT departments were preoccupied with themselves, often only providing minimum requirements for an employee's workplace and were not directly involved in value-adding projects, i.e. they acted as cost centers. In this blog article, the author confirms this paradigm shift that the digital transformation is bringing to thought structures. The prerequisite for this is that people believe in the digital transformation.
Admittedly a very unscientific thesis for a blog article with so many references, but isn't it true that projects are very likely to fail without the necessary support from stakeholders and the necessary commitment from employees? Their behavior is decisive, as can also be proven by experience from project management [25].
We remember the beginning of this chapter and the scope of the digital transformation: the journey to total connectivity. So if people's behavior is the decisive factor for the success of a project and it is precisely these people who drive the aforementioned journey with their belief, it can be concluded that people are the most important components of digital transformation. The author is not alone in this realization, as Gerald C. Kane dedicated an entire book to this topic entitled: "The Technology Fallacy: How People Are the Real Key to Digital Transformation" [26]. He goes one step further and writes that the success factor depends on how quickly people adapt to the changing technology.
The author of this blog article is aware that not everyone wants to reach a state of complete dependence on technology. However, we assume that the business and personal benefits of such a dependency will be so high that it will nevertheless develop over time. Companies can only remain competitive if they keep up. Topics such as IT security, digital ethics, digital responsibility, data protection and privacy will become eminently more significant over the same period.
THE BIGGEST SUCCESS FACTOR IN DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION IS PEOPLE. [27]
The author also draws on the past for the definition of digital transformation. In it, the author describes digital transformation as follows: "The continuous and logical conversion and continuation of the entrepreneurial pursuit of better efficiency with the use of digital technology." [28]
In the context of this blog article, the author of this blog article eliminates the word "digital" because technology already implies the digital component. He also adds the word current before the word technology to emphasize that the improvement of efficiency should be driven by current technology in order not to be at a competitive disadvantage.
As already mentioned, digital transformation is also a journey to singularity. It therefore results in: "The continuous and logical implementation and continuation of the entrepreneurial pursuit of better efficiency with the use of current technology up to the singularity", which we can therefore make tangible with the change in efficiency. As the whole of humanity is on this journey, all sectors and industries are also affected in an entrepreneurial sense, and what is described in this section can be summarized as shown in the following figure [29]:
External sources
[1] Marc Weiser; 1991; The Computer for the 21st Century - Scientific American; pages 94 - 104
[2] João Reis, Marlene Amorim, Nuno Melão & Patrícia Matos; 2018; Digital Transformation: A Literature Review and Guidelines for Future Research - Springer International Publishing; page 419
[3] Dominic M. Mazzone; 2014, Digital or Death: Digital Transformation - The Only Choice for Business to Survive, Smash, and Conquer
[4] Thomas Hess; 2019; Strategically managing digital transformation - from chance hit to systematic approach
[5] Prof. Dr. Thorsten Petry; Digital maturity as the key to successful transformation; changement Magazine
[6] Prof. Dr. Andrea Back; 2016; Digital Maturity & Transformation Study - About the Digital Maturity Model; https://iwi.unisg.ch/wp-content/uploads/digitalmaturitymodel_download_v2.0-1.pdf
[7] Gerald C. Kane, Anh Nguyen Phillips, Jonathan R. Copulsky and Garth R. Andrus; 2019; The Technology Fallacy - How People Are the Real Key to Digital Transformation; The MIT Press
[8] D. Nadler and Michael Tushman; 1980; A Model for Diagnosing Organizational Behavior; Organizational Dynamics 9
[9] Ralf E. Strauß; 2019; Digital transformation: strategy, conception and implementation in business practice; Schäffer-Poeschel
[10] Marc Weiser; 1991; The Computer for the 21st Century - Scientific American; page 94
[11] Tanja G. Baudson; 2008; MinD-Magazin 63; https://orbilu.uni.lu/bitstream/10993/33973/1/mindmag63-tgb.pdf
[12] Verner Vinge; 1993; NASA Lewis Research Center, Vision 21; https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/19940022856/downloads/19940022856.pdf
[13, 14] Elon Musk; 2017; Making Humans a Multi-Planetary Species; New Space
[17] Tobias Müller-Prothmann, Nora Dörr; 2014; Innovation Management - Strategies, Methods and Tools for Systematic Innovation Processes; Carl Hanser Verlag
[19] Eric Schmidt; 2014; How Google works; New York Publishing
[22] Christian Schawe, Fabian Billing; 2018; Top 100 Management Tools; Springer Gabler
[23] Peter Eichhorn, Joachim Merk; 2016; The principle of economic efficiency; Springer Fachmedien
[25] Georg Kraus, Reinhold Westermann; 2014; Project Management with System; Springer Gabler
[26] Gerald C. Kane; 2019; The Technology Fallacy; The MIT Press
Own sources
[16, 18, 28] Fabio Iannone (author of this article); 2017
[15, 20, 21, 24, 27, 29] Fabio Iannone (author of this article); 2020
